USDJPY

USDJPY on weekly graph looks a good bet on the short side. 50 Week MA has capped the prices well. We got a nice bounce on daily graph.

Weekly MACD and Stochastic are now in sell mode and RSI (21-week) has broken down below 50.

This is a good long term short with a risk level of 101 and adding expected further weakness below 93 daily close. Expect prices to decline below previous lows of 87.

Nickel is back in action!!!

Nickel prices went into a deep consolidation/basing out pattern for the last 8 months. Price is now above all significant DMA levels.



If prices are able to close above 13700 for the week, it would be bullish. Nickel can rise to 17500 - 18000 range on a sustained breakout above this level.

Natgas Jumps again!!!

Natural Gas prices very sharply up after retracing the previous rise. In the last post I had highlighted that Natgas is a buy on any weakness and this dip is an excellent opportunity to be on the long side of Natgas.

See these graphs -



Current prices have a strong support at swing low of $3.38 and pivot support is at $3.10. Natgas is expected to rise to $5 from current price levels.

Elliott wave Analysis - Crude oil nearing top

Taking previous view on crude oil forward it seems crude oil is now in a process of toping out. Yesterday’s price action is suggestive of price entering 3 of 5 of C.

Once this final 5 wave upmove exhausts price would reverse.

Current wave count suggest that price may top at around $68 - $70 range before beginning their down move to previous lows of $33 and further to new lows.

The complete down wave 3 was from 128.6 to 32.4. We look for fourth wave to retrace 38.2% of this wave which is at about $70. The corrective ABC calls for C = 1.618 X A which is at $62.5 and C = 2.0 X A is at $70.



Lower degree fourth wave of an extended third ended at $71.6.

There is a strong confluence resistance at $68 - $72 price levels.

On a one hour graph the rally looks impulsive. Look for sign of exhaustion after price jumps above $65.

USD/AUD long term trend

Australian dollar made a significant H&S pattern on its long term graph against the USD. However this pattern failed and prices fell below the neckline which is at 0.80 currently.

Previous support has now turned to resistance.

Monthly 25 Years Graph



The bull market in AUD was broken decisively in July last year. Since then AUD got cut into half against the USD. This rebound can be seen as a bear market rally which has retraced 50% of the complete fall.


Weekly 10 Years



A significant turn can occur at the current price range of 0.80 – 0.85.

Incidentally 0.85 is also the target prices by measured move analysis of short term double bottom formed in USDAUD on a daily graph. RSI is diverging and current market action is now looking topish. If prices reverse from these levels we should look to go short on AUD against the USD for target of previous low of 0.60 and further.

Daily 2 years