Metals Market Perspective

The Elliott wave count on Gold that was giving a signal of downward push to the prices has been invalidated rather convincingly. The alternate count that I mentioned in my first post has picked up strength.

As of now we have exited the corrective trend channel for gold and moved out of the bearish price pattern formation. So the markets didn't spend enough time in the fourth corrective wave to mark it as an important correction. The 2nd wave of the current impulse was of nearly 19 months and the expected 4th wave zig-zag didn't last that long. Still it is premature to say that the overall structure has changed and we have entered the first upmove of the 5th impulse. It does seem that Gold became a good risk reward weighted buy after crossing $910. But the kind of exposure one can take on this volatile market needs to be debated. Gold prices would now target $960 and $980 in the next few weeks. Important price reversal point is $910.

On the Elliott wave count we have entered an impulsive lower degree 3rd wave which is projecting targets of $960 in the near term. i would update the graph on Elliott wave count on gold.

Crude oil has been rising ever since it pierced the $139 mark. Now it has already achieved the $145. Crude oil seems targeting $149 in the short term and $155 may be a medium term top. Although calling a top in the markets is fruitless exercise, still I would suggest a top of around $155 to hold in the medium term.

Copper has made a new life time high. I wrote in my previous Metals Market Perspective and the Market update posts that copper is ready to blast off the blocks. Now it seems Copper will aim for $10000 by the end of this year if it is able to clear the overhead supply till $9080. Copper has been better to trade in India as the INR depreciation has favoured the price upmove. Copper traded on the Indian commodity Exchanges has made new high in every session in the last one week. The strength seems to have furious momentum. Copper can be the next big bull in the making.

Aluminium has broken out of its $3170 resistance. The market has buying momentum. Yesterday the prices recovered $100 from days low on LME. I feel aluminium has the strength to make a new all time high in the next few weeks. The immediate target for aluminium now stands at $3250.

I would put up on article Dynamics of 'The Oil Price' in few days.